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Posts Tagged ‘The Grand Renaissance Dam’

Egyptians’ Stance And Sentiments Toward The Nile River

Posted by addisethiopia / አዲስ ኢትዮጵያ on December 6, 2017

Is nationalism best served by expressing passionate sentiments for one’s country in song or does a nation’s progress need more than love? Egyptians’ tendency to voice their emotional attachment to their country is not only a sign of hypocrisy; it also aims at highlighting their dependence on the state and, in turn, enhances the state’s prominence and citizens’ need for it.

Egypt is one of a few countries that produce numerous songs in praise of national glory. We sing in praise of the pyramids, the Sphinx, the Nile, ancient monuments and of course our civilization in general. The Egyptian government obviously supports this trend, rewarding such singers by enrolling them into its entourage. However, simultaneously while celebrating these songs, many of us abuse our national resources — by engaging in the illegal trafficking and mistreatment of our ancient relics, for example.

Our government is constantly repeating that the Nile is a matter of life or death for the Egyptian people. Yet we have been carelessly damaging this lifeline for decades by inefficiently consuming our share of the river’s water, polluting it with waste, and mismanaging our conflict with Ethiopia over Nile water allocation. Nonetheless, along with the abuse, we maintain our sentiments for the river, saying that visitors who drink from the Nile will always come back to our country.

Sadly, we have been carelessly damaging the Nile for decades by inefficiently consuming our share of its water, polluting it with waste disposal, and mismanaging our conflict with Ethiopia over water allocation.

The Egyptian singer who spent years singing a very emotional and popular song in praise of the Nile is currently being prosecuted because of a word that slipped out as she tried to make a joke at a live concert. Meanwhile, millions of citizens who have been abusing the Nile for decades continue to do so without being penalized.
Zooming out, many Egyptians often express their sentiments for the military and police apparatus that protect our national security, apparently convinced that spending their time singing for our soldiers who are facing terrorists and enemies on the front line is a serious pursuit that helps to keep our country in good shape. Not only is this hypocritical, it also reflects an unjust attitude toward citizens who put their lives on the line and to others whose utmost contribution is to express their love.

Many Egyptians are privileged by the state for humming “Long Live Egypt” in song. The phrase has become a password used by people to express loyalty to their country, in return for which they are granted state positions and immunity from being held to account for their ineffectiveness or for involvement in corruption. Meanwhile, Egyptians who want to play a constructive role in the development of their country are marginalized for not being in tune with the rhythm required by the state.

“Rest assured that we will solve the problem,” was President El-Sisi’s recent response to the grave concerns of Egyptians regarding their share of Nile River water upon learning that technical negotiations with the Ethiopian government on the Renaissance Dam had come to a deadlock. In my view, the Egyptian government should have negotiated this issue and struck a deal with Ethiopia when the dam was still a proposal. Now that it is close to realization, reaching a solution is infinitely more complicated.

Seeing the government lose a number of internal and external political battles makes us justifiably concerned. Candidness is not as essential a quality for a ruler as competence; a competent ruler would be able to solve our challenges — or at least to provide some sign that we are on the right track. Sadly, the Nile conflict might drag Egypt into an unpleasant internal scenario that could have been avoided had the issue been addressed well in advance.

Source: ArabNews

My Note: Such a rational thought is found very rarely among Arab folks, good observation! Egypt should better start begging Ethiopia for each drop of Nile water.Here another fake report on Qatar financing the Great Renaissance Dam. Just unbelievable – even more unbelievable how some commentators share their primitively disgusting racialist thoughts. This sort of thing is all over the net, lately. How sad!

Snapshots from the comments section:



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Sacred Rivers: The Spiritual Side of The Ganges, The Nile and The Yangtze

Posted by addisethiopia / አዲስ ኢትዮጵያ on October 12, 2014


As his new television series ‘Sacred Rivers’ begins, Simon Reeve reveals the spiritual side of the Ganges, the Nile and the Yangtze

Outside a small hillside shrine at Gish Abay in the lush highlands of Ethiopia a large crowd had gathered under the sweltering midday sun. They were waiting patiently by a shack with a tin roof for Orthodox priests to bless them with water from an unimpressive little stream. But as it dribbles through a grassy meadow and tumbles down a rocky hill, hundreds of other trickles and torrents join it, and the stream is transformed into the mighty Nile.

I was visiting Gish Abay, revered by millions as the source of the world’s longest river, while filming Sacred Rivers, a new TV series for which I travelled the length of the Nile, the Yangtze and the Ganges.

The three journeys were rollicking adventures and an opportunity to explore remote and magnificent areas of the world, while having my brain fed with stories about the cultures, religions and countries that have emerged along some of our greatest rivers. They were also eye-opening experiences and often extremely moving.

Hundreds of pilgrims had travelled from across Ethiopia to the source of the Nile, either to give thanks for the holy waters, or to seek good fortune or healing for a depressing list of ailments. There was both wailing and joy. One young woman told me, with the certainty of the pious, that her kidney infection had just been cured by contact with the water.

The shrine at the source is underwhelming, but the veneration of the water made absolute sense to me. The Nile is life-giving. In the arid regions of north-eastern Africa, human existence would be virtually impossible without it. The same is true of the Ganges and Yangtze. Rivers have helped to shape the development of human civilisation. What could be more normal than to thank and praise God or the gods for the magical, mysterious gift of a river that has nurtured and sustained vast numbers of humans for aeons of time?

The Nile: The life-giving force at the heart of Africa

Two great tributaries form the world’s longest river: the White Nile running north from Lake Victoria, and the Blue Nile, which begins in Ethiopia, where I began my journey from source to sea.

Think of the Nile and you invariably think of Egypt, pharaohs and pyramids. But it’s actually Ethiopia that provides almost 90 per cent of the total flow of the Nile.

With a BBC team I followed the Blue Nile from Gish Abay to the far north-west of Ethiopia, and the vast waters of beautiful Lake Tana, an inland sea covering more than 1,000 square miles, also considered by some to be the source of the Blue Nile.

Fishermen on the lake still use boats made from papyrus, which grows all the way along the river Nile and played a major role in all of the civilisations that grew up on its banks. A local boatbuilder called Girma let me paddle around in one of his new creations, and although papyrus boats are as stable as a bowl of jelly, to my amazement I managed to avoid a watery dip.

Across the lake I stopped at the 700-year-old monastery of Ura Kidane Mehret, one of dozens in the area. Inside, vivid wall paintings tell the story of Ethiopia’s spectacular religious heritage. According to legend a Lake Tana monastery was also the resting place of the Ark of the Covenant. Many Ethiopians believe it’s still in the country.

Heading north into Sudan, I saw the meeting point of the two Niles, the extraordinary spectacle of Khartoum’s ”whirling dervishes’’, and took a long drive into the desert to a region once home to the ancient Nile civilisation now known as Nubia.

Nubia developed along the river 5,000 years ago, and stretched from northern Sudan into southern Egypt. It is still little-known, but there are more pyramids in Sudan than in Egypt, and at Nuri there is a royal cemetery containing pyramids for 20 kings and 54 queens of the Nubian kingdom known as Kush.

Climbing the ruined side of the pyramid belonging to Taharqa, the greatest of all Kushite pharaohs – who ruled not only Sudan but the whole of Egypt as well – was a breathtaking experience.

Standing on top of Jebel Barkal, a lone 90m-high outcrop once considered the holiest site in Nubia partly because of its proximity to the Nile, I could see clearly why so many people worship our sacred rivers. Around me there was desert. Beyond the river, there was desert. But along the riverbanks, there was life.

Religions often developed out of a desire to explain and understand the forces of nature and creation. At Nuri there could not have been a clearer representation of the powerful gift of a river.


Dam Rising in Ethiopia Stirs Hope and Tension

grand-ethiopian-renaissance-damThere is a remote stretch of land in Ethiopia’s forested northwest where the dust never settles. All week, day and night, thousands of workers pulverize rocks and lay concrete along a major tributary of the Nile River. It is the site of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, the continent’s biggest hydropower plant and one of the most ambitious infrastructure projects ever in Africa.

Ethiopia is a poor country, often known best for its past famines, but officials say the dam will be paid for without foreign assistance — a point of national pride. Computer-generated images of the finished structure are framed in government offices, splashed across city billboards and broadcast in repeated specials on the state-owned television channel.

We lean on the generousness of the rest of the world,” said Zadig Abrha, deputy director of the dam’s public mobilization office. “So there is a conviction on the part of the public to change this, to regain our lost greatness, to divorce ourselves from the status quo of poverty. And the first thing that we need to do is make use of our natural resources, like water.”

Ethiopia, one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, has poured its resources into a slew of megaprojects in recent years, including dams, factories, roads and railways across the country.

Continue reading…


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Posted by addisethiopia / አዲስ ኢትዮጵያ on May 25, 2014

The Deadly Egyptian Cobra Controls and Deceives its Western & Eastern Dragons
As for the terror of you, The arrogance of your heart has deceived you, O you who live in the clefts of the rock, Who occupy the height of the hill. Though you make your nest as high as an eagle’s, I will bring you down from there,” declares the LORD. [Jeremiah 49:16 ]
Mid January, I heard on South Korea’s global broadcast service, Arirang, the Egyptian ambassador to South Korea saying that Egypt is safe for tourists, and that many Koreans like to visit Christian sites in Egypt, such as the famous St. Catherine’s Monastery in the Sinai Peninsula.
Exactly a month later, there was a bomb attack on a tourist bus carrying 33 South Korean tourists in the Sinai. Three South Koreans and their bus driver were killed.
Egypt is in a desperate and dangerous state of affairs. The Egyptian nation has a poor soul which forces it to continuously apply some of the cheapest traits of human qualities when dealing with both its internal and foreign matters. Egypt has been deceiving itself and the masses of this world for years and centuries. Perhaps, the only two cunning nations that undeservedly capitalize or make a great deal out of their respective past civilizations are Egypt and Iran.
Egyptians pride themselves on making the storied eagle as their national symbol (their flag) Eagle is a symbol of pagan forms of deity. The Nazis too used the same eagle on their national flag which represents Satan’s empire. In such a figure a symbol may both reveal and conceal, while to the ignorant the figure remains inscrutable. For example, The Prophet Hosea said, “He shall come into their midst as the land, as an EAGLE (The ungodly Nebuchadnezzar is meant) against the house of the Lord, because they have transgressed my covenant, and have sinned against my law” (HOS 8:1)
Now, it seems Egyptians too copied the same propaganda style that Nazi Hitler adopted during the Second World War. The river Nile has always been a paramount issue for the rulers of Egypt. These rulers brainwashed their own people as well as the international communities by hiding their true intentions, omitting relevant historical facts and by constantly making deceiving statements everywhere. All their ministers, and overrated “experts’ are acting in a similar manner as Hitler’s prime deceiver, Joseph Goebbels, to intimidate the world community as if the construction of Ethiopian dams brings disaster, not only for Egypt, but for the wider world, by indicating that without the Nile there won’t be the Pyramids or the Sphinxes for the world to visit.
One of the latest deceiving tactics Egyptians have preferred to use is their aggressive propaganda campaign in the field of archeology and tourism. Since January 2014 there were more “discoveries” heralded in Egypt than during the whole of the 20th century. It looks as though the Egyptian snake is attempting to fool the world into believing that if Ethiopia blocks the waters of the Nile there won’t be any tourist coming to Egypt or no new discoveries to be made. In other words, Ethiopia is aiming to destroy Egypt, the heritage of the world, so, stop Ethiopia now from using the Nile!
Egypt is using a publicity trick – a reverse psychology – when one of its ex-army general filed a court case asking for St. Catherine’s Monastery – the oldest functioning monastery in the world – to be demolished and its monks deported on the grounds that they pose a national security threat – “come to Egypt before we’ve destroyed everything worth seeing”-strategy.
Some of the newest “Discoveries”:
Jan 16, 2014
The remains of a previously unknown pharaoh who reigned more than 3,600 years ago have emerged from Egypt’s desert sand.
Feb 3, 2014
Archaeologists in southern Egypt have uncovered a step pyramid that dates back about 4,600 years.
Feb 12, 2014
Archaeologists have discovered a school dating back about 1,700 years that contains ancient Greek writings on its walls, including a text about ancient drug use.
Mar 26, 2014
A mummy of an Egyptian woman dating back to 700 A.D. has been scanned and stripped to reveal a tattoo on her thigh that displays the name of the biblical archangel Michael.
Mar 31, 2014
A tomb newly excavated at an ancient cemetery in Egypt would have boasted a pyramid 23 feet high at its entrance.
Apr 8, 2014
An ancient Egyptian mummy found with an intact brain, but no heart, has a plaque on her abdomen that may have been intended to ritually heal her.
Apr 30, 2014
The ancient Egyptians who built the pyramids may have been able to move massive stone blocks across the desert by wetting the sand in front of a contraption built to pull the heavy objects, according to a new study.

‘One of The Earliest Images of Jesus’ Unearthed in Egyptian Tomb

April 30, 2014 

My note: The resemblance between the discovered image of young Jesus (left) and the older Ethiopian Jesus (right) is striking
A team of Catalan archaeologists believes it has unearthed one of the earliest images of Jesus Christ buried deep in an ancient Egyptian tomb. 
Experts at the University of Barcelona discovered an underground structure in the ancient Egyptian city of Oxyrhynchu which may have acted as a resting place for a number of priests.
More than 45 tonnes of rock had to be moved in order to access the hidden room. Another unidentified structure found nearby during this process is currently being investigated.
Once inside, the team found five or six coats of paint on the walls, the last of which was from the Coptic period of the first Christians.
The underground structure was also reportedly decorated with Coptic images and may contain one of the earliest-known representations of Jesus Christ, The Local has reported.
Dr Josep Padró, the Emeritus Professor at the University of Barcelona who led the expedition, described the find as “exceptional”.
He told the La Vanguardia newspaper that the figure is that of “a young man with curly hair, dressed in a short tunic and with his hand raised as if giving a blessing”.
“We could be dealing with a very early image of Jesus Christ,” he added.


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No Denial on the Nile: Egypt Threatens Ethiopian Dams

Posted by addisethiopia / አዲስ ኢትዮጵያ on June 14, 2013

CryingRIn a humiliating example of self-inflicted electronic bugging, last week a live broadcast television microphone in Egyptian President Muhammed Morsi’s Cairo office caught the president and Egypt’s most senior political leaders plotting sneak attacks on the upstream Nile’s biggest dam builder, Ethiopia.

No denial on the Nile. When an audience of millions overhears pious Egyptian Islamists and well-heeled Egyptian liberals mull classic covert warfare options — such as having Ethiopian rebels sabotage Ethiopia’s new Blue Nile dams or deploying shady political agents to agitate in Addis Ababa — the usual diplomatic salve, plausible denial, isn’t an option.

In point of fact, the Egyptian government’s initial embarrassment has given way to hard-edged declaration. Egyptians will fight Ethiopia for every drop of Nile River water!

For politically fractured and factionalized Egypt, war talk is a unifying tonic and a distraction from Egypt’s endless miseries. Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood government has simply failed to address the enormous economic and social problems afflicting Egypt.

Solving embedded societal ills requires a national unity of purpose. Morsi has been a national divider. His sharia-based constitution delighted Muslim Brothers but dismayed Egypt’s liberals. His attempt to invoke emergency rule (reminiscent of Hosni Mubarak) splintered Egypt’s Arab Spring revolutionary front. Muslim moderates joined with secular liberals and demanded he resign.

But Nile water sustains all Egyptians. The trite adage, “Egypt is the Nile,” is true. From Aswan north to Alexandria on the Mediterranean Sea, the green band bordering the great river is home to 90 percent of Egypt’s population.

Morsi needs a route to national reconciliation. The Nile Water War (temporarily) solves Egypt’s broken puzzle: Us Downstream Egyptians versus Them Upstream Ethiopians.

But Ethiopia’s dams did not suddenly appear. For two decades every nation in east Africa has known Ethiopia intended to build several large hydro-electric dams and become Africa’s biggest power exporter.

Ethiopia has been waging a steady diplomatic campaign asserting its rights to Nile water. Ethiopia’s case is as passionately essential as Egypt’s. One word defines the basic case: famine. Water in reservoirs is a hedge against famines induced by drought. Electrical power sums Ethiopia’s expanded case.

Ethiopia contends the traditional division of Nile water distribution rights are based on an antiquated colonial artifact that unfairly favors Egypt. The 1929 Nile Waters agreement (engineered by Great Britain) gave Anglo-Egyptian Egypt 90 percent of the Nile’s annual flow. Egypt could also veto upstream water projects. In 1957 Ethiopia announced it would utilize Nile water resources within its territory. The Blue Nile and its Ethiopian tributaries generate 75 to 85 percent of the Nile’s annual flow. The White Nile, from Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania, generates the rest.

A war between east Africa’s two most powerful nations would be a disaster for both. That’s so obvious I’ll wager even Mohammed Morsi knows it. The war options Egyptian leaders vetted included buying new long-range strike aircraft. Egypt’s air force can handle border conflicts, but hitting the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a long-range operation. Sudan separates Egypt from Ethiopia. One parliamentarian thought credible strike aircraft might give Ethiopia political pause. Ethiopia’s already credible air and ground forces should give Egyptian sword rattlers pause.

In April 2011 reported that Ethiopian diplomats had proposed an interesting win-win solution. Ethiopia would sell Egypt a partnership interest in its dams. Egypt would have ownership input in the operations. Ownership guaranteed Egypt reliable hydro-electric power. Egypt would also split the profits from selling electricity throughout Africa. Hey, Cairo. For the dams to generate electricity, water must flown downstream.

Ethiopia’s proposal at least creates the possibility of a win-win political deal. In time cool heads in Cairo should accept it.


[Isaiah 19:3-7]

The Egyptians will panic, and I will confuse their strategy. They will seek guidance from the idols and from the spirits of the dead, from the pits used to conjure up underworld spirits, and from the magicians.

I will hand Egypt over to a harsh master; a powerful king will rule over them,” says the sovereign master, the LORD who commands armies.

The water of the sea will be dried up, and the river will dry up and be empty.

The canals will stink; the streams of Egypt will trickle and then dry up; the bulrushes and reeds will decay, along with the plants by the mouth of the river. All the cultivated land near the river will turn to dust and be blown away.


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Egypt: Judgment Days Coming?

Posted by addisethiopia / አዲስ ኢትዮጵያ on May 31, 2013

JDayOn Friday 5 April, an imam in Khusus (a poor area on the outskirts of Cairo) issued a call from the mosque: ‘Kill the Christians and cleanse Al Khusus’ of ‘infidels’. Four local Copts were killed in the subsequent Islamic pogrom. On Sunday 7 April, as Coptic Christians gathered at St Mark’s Coptic Orthodox Cathedral in Cairo for the funeral of the four, Muslims came and started stoning the mourners. The mob grew as more and more Muslims joined in, many arriving with weapons, including guns and Molotov cocktails. Cairo police took more than an hour to respond and when they did arrive, they did nothing to quell the attack. Live TV footage shows most police remaining motionless throughout the attack, while some actually join in, lobbing tear gas grenades into the church compound. One Copt died from gunshot wounds whilst dozens were wounded. The police didn’t help the Christians, in fact it arrested four Christians It is clear by now, that, if the police arrest anyone, it will only be Christians; Muslims will not be charged. The courts will never or almost never rule in the favor of any Christians. Indeed, high-ranking government officials accused the Christians themselves of attacking the cathedral! there are, according to baptismal records of the Coptic Orthodox Church, some 16 million Christian Copts in Egypt.

In Egypt “Islam is taught in all state schools to all pupils, but Christianity cannot be taught to Christian children. Coptic teachers cannot teach Arabic. Copts are encouraged to convert to Islam, but Muslims who convert to Christianity face harassment and severe persecution. Copts, despite being loyal to their original country, despite their pious prayers for their country, for their government, for its president, for all Egyptians, for the Nile, and for the army, Copts are woefully underrepresented in Egypt’s military, judiciary, diplomatic corps, academia and almost all electoral bodies.

The disturbing thing is the Islamist regime continues getting big loans and U.S. military aid. With Egypt threatening Nile riparian countries like Ethiopia, things would even go worse. The ignorant world remains indifferent; the hypocritical, despicable main stream mediais usually determined to be “even-handed” or to ignore the extent of the situation, preferring to seek alleged abuses and human rights violations in other, near-by countries like Ethiopia. In the coming days, they will start perpetuating a massive fraud, talking trash, spewing venomous lies and leveling false accusations towards Ethiopia, concerning the construction of the Renaissance Dam.

History about to repeat itself?

In the historically crucial years of 1875 – 1876, Khedive Ismail of Egypt invaded Ethiopia without much success. This was the time when Egypt was suffering because of food shortage after the annual Nile River flood failed. Economic crisis hits Egypt, its total foreign debt came to £94,000,000. Seriously concerned with the country’s financial situation, Ismail asked for British help in fiscal reform. Britain responded by sending Steven Cave, a member of Parliament, to investigate. Cave judged Egypt to be solvent on the basis of its resources and said that all the country needed to get back on its feet was time and the proper servicing of the debts. Cave recommended the establishment of a control commission over Egypt’s finances to approve all future loans. A year earlier, Khedive Ismail sold 176,000 Suez Canal shares to the British government

In order to divert attention from Egypt’s state of confusion and disorderliness, Europe and America encouraged Egypt to invade Ethiopia – by arming the Muslim Khedive Ismael’s army and sending mercenaries alongside the Egyptian army to fight against the Orthodox Christian country of Ethiopia. But, Ismael’s Egyptian forces were again defeated by Emperor Yohannes IV of Ethiopia. The battle at Gura involved 12,000 well-equipped Egyptians, hundreds of European, almost fifty American, and several Ottoman mercenary officers. Of the 6,000 Egyptians that took part in the battle, 4,000 were either killed, wounded or captured (and then killed).

The humiliating defeat of Egypt and its allies followed by their cowardice murder of Ethiopian leaders like Emperor Yohannes. This hatred, of course, was driven by a shame-based Muslim culture that is deeply humiliated by Arab weakness and Ethiopian strength. During the Crimean War, troops from the same Egyptian army fought admirably in southern Russia (Orthodox Christian State) and a decade later, also performed well fighting in the army of Napoleon III in Mexico. Yet, this same army suffered disastrous defeats in the 1870s during Western-powered campaigns in Ethiopia. Losing a war is a traumatic experience for any country, and it often leads to an internal revolution and scapegoating.

In 1876, Egypt was punished not only by the Ethiopian army, but also by mother nature. In the next consecutive years Egypt was repeatedly struck by food shortage because the annual Nile River flood failed. In 1878, England and France gain cabinet seats and control over Egyptian finances. The food shortage, the whole chaos and military fiasco eventually lead later to the British occupation of Egypt.

Currently, we are witnessing similar scenarios, as the situation in Egypt is more or less marked by correspondence of Khedive Ismael’s Egypt. The economy is in decline, the financial food security is precarious, the waters of the Nile are speaking, is and Islamic intolerance is soaring. Yes, life is like the river, sometimes it sweeps us gently along and sometimes the rapids come out of nowhere. Now, Egypt seems to be like fish in troubled waters, it’s a tinderbox!

Over the past couple of years everyone has become curious to know why the Western World go over to ally with those forces who later become their own enemies. US defense minister, Hagel was recently in Egypt to try and preserve military ties with the Muslim Brotherhood-led gov’t

In the above short video, FOX News’ Hanniti asks why the US government is ready to  unconditionally give billions of dollars in aid to the rouge state of Egypt. It’s amazing to observe how the three discuss so emotionally about a country whose mainstream society has never been, will never be an ally to the United States. You never see this sort of emotional devotedness to nations like Ethiopia. In fact, in time of war, God forbid!, one of the speakers sounds like the useful idiot who would be willing to serve the Egyptian army as mercenary.

In that day Egypt will be like women, and will be afraid and fear because of the waving of the hand of the LORD of hosts, which He waves over it. And the land of Judah will be a terror to Egypt; everyone who makes mention of it will be afraid in himself, because of the counsel of the LORD of hosts which He has determined against it. In that day five cities in the land of Egypt will speak the language of Canaan and swear by the LORD of hosts; one will be called the City of Destruction”. [Isaiah 19:16-18]

  • U.S.-Ethiopian relations were established in 1903

  • U.S.-Egyptian relations were established in 1922

  • Ethiopia and Ethiopians never been hostile to Western nations

  • Egypt’s Muslim brotherhood is the root source of Islamic terrorism


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Egypt, Ethiopia Headed For War Over Water

Posted by addisethiopia / አዲስ ኢትዮጵያ on April 1, 2013

To illustrate the Nile’s importance, we should remember that Egypt is the largest desert oasis in the world. Life in Egypt is concentrated on the river banks where 90 million people live. In short, any Egyptian government should have one eye on the Horn of Africa — on Ethiopia, where the source of the Nile lies — and another eye on the Sinai Peninsula and the Levant, and the balance of power there. History has shown that most of Egypt’s invaders entered through that door.

Last week, the Lebanese website “As-Safir” expressed some interesting thoughts on questions related to the NILE issue. The writing begins with a prophetic remark about a possible war between Ethiopia and – after highlighting the importance of the river Nile for Egypt, the writer went on to outline, that, unlike in the past, the current geopolitical framework strengthens Ethiopia’s position, and gave six key indicators, and a recommendation for it:

First, the disintegration of Somalia, Ethiopia’s traditional rival with which it fought a tough war over the Ogaden region, removed the geopolitical balance facing Ethiopia’s political ambitions in the region. Ethiopia exploited Somalia’s disintegration to strengthen its regional presence in the Horn of Africa. For years, Ethiopia has been “fighting terrorism” emerging from Somalia. Ethiopia has been doing that under an American umbrella from 2006 to 2009 and then again since 2011 until now.

The second indicator is represented by the partition of Sudan into two states: Sudan and South Sudan. That development has weakened Sudan (and thus Egypt) in the Horn of Africa and allowed Ethiopia to participate, since 2012, in the UN peacekeeping forces in the Abyei region, which is disputed between Sudan and South Sudan.

The third indicator is the following: the weakening of Sudan has shifted the balance of power in Ethiopia’s favor. The crisis in Darfur and the international isolation of the Sudanese president (an international arrest warrant was issued against him by the International Court of Justice in The Hague in 2009) has significantly limited Khartoum’s ability to maneuver in the Nile conflict.

The fourth indicator is the improved relationship between Ethiopia and the West in general, and between Ethiopia and the US in particular, after Addis Ababa emerged as a reliable partner in the Horn of Africa. Every year, Ethiopia gets $4 billion in military, development and food assistance. But the matter is not limited to direct aid. The West has started looking at Ethiopia differently in regard to development projects, such as the construction of dams in Ethiopia. The West had opposed such projects for decades because they were considered a threat to regional security.

The fifth indicator is about China. China is Ethiopia’s primary trade partner and Beijing has expressed willingness to finance a dam construction in Ethiopia and offered Chinese expertise in building large dams. China wishes to have a foothold in the region. There is oil in South Sudan and the Congo has mineral resources.

The sixth indicator is the weakening of Egypt’s political weight in the Horn of Africa. Egypt has no role in Somalia and was not even a key party in the negotiations between Sudan and South Sudan. Egypt’s preoccupation with internal matters is weakening its ability to confront regional and international players, such as China. Even though Egypt is the biggest market for Chinese goods among the 11 basin countries, China has favored other considerations over Egyptian priorities and Egypt’s rights in the Nile waters. So much so that China has offered its technological expertise in constructing dams, which is a complete disregard to Egyptian rights. What will Egypt do about all that? Only God knows.

In the coming years, Egypt and Ethiopia may be forced to fight a “water war” because Ethiopia’s ambitions contradict Egypt’s historical and legal rights in the Nile waters. Ethiopia can only be deterred by the regional and international balance of powers, which in recent years has favored Ethiopia.

A recommendation

In the coming years, Egypt and Ethiopia may be forced to fight a “water war” because Ethiopia’s ambitions contradict Egypt’s historical and legal rights in river waters. Ethiopia can only be deterred by the regional and international balance of powers, which in recent years has favored Ethiopia.

The government of Hisham Qandil (an irrigation expert, not a diplomat, legal expert or strategist) seems unable to manage such a complex issue with legal, political, economic, military and international aspects. His government is unable to solve everyday problems that are less complex, such as security, traffic, and fuel and food supplies. This portends dire consequences for Egypt.

What is needed is a way to manage the crisis and use Egyptian soft power toward Ethiopia, especially the Coptic Orthodox Church, which is the Ethiopian Church’s mother church. It is necessary to form a fixed Egyptian team to manage this highly sensitive issue. The team should go beyond party affiliation and include leading Egyptian Nile specialists. Ideological or religious affiliation should not be a factor in choosing that Egyptian crisis team. What is important should be the capabilities and competencies of the team members, who will come from the “clay” of the country, not from a particular group, party or political current. Clay, to those who don’t know, is what Egyptians call their country’s soil, which is a fertile soil resulting from the mixing with the Nile water.

Will Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi realize the seriousness of the situation and deal with that issue as a major national matter and quickly implement the required policies and procedures, or will he hesitate, as usual, and go down in history as someone who squandered the historic rights of Egypt and its future generations?

What is missing in the article is:

  • Egypt’s old-fashioned way (ignore the woman if you want to get her) to make its lifeline, top national security priority of its government less publicized, while conducting secretive operations to affect the development and stability of Ethiopia will not work this time. If I ware an Egyptian leader, I would have made official visits every other month to Addis Abeba, to beg Ethiopia to drink shared waters, or they will remain sited in Cairo drinking their empty pride. During the tragic years of famine and sufferings in Ethiopia, Egyptians, even the richest ones, were nowhere to show a single gesture of compassion and solidarity towards the starving children of Ethiopia. Mind you, these people are drinking and eating Ethiopian water and soil. Well, they will be begging soon!

  • Egypt already has to import 60% of its grain to feed its current population of 90. By 2050, its population is expected to increase to 115 million, greatly increasing its demand for already scarce water

Indeed, Egypt’s options are to

  • go to war with Ethiopia to obtain more water

  • cut population growth

  • improve irrigation efficiency

  • dismantle the Aswan High Dam, as 20% of the water is lost to evaporation

  • buy water from Ethiopia

  • import more grain to reduce the need for irrigation water

  • work out honest water-sharing agreements with Ethiopia and other Nile riparian countries

  • suffer the harsh economic and human consequences of extreme hydrologic poverty


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IMF: Ethiopia Nee! – Egypt Yeah!

Posted by addisethiopia / አዲስ ኢትዮጵያ on October 21, 2012


Ethiopians, solely Ethiopians are helping  to build the future of their country by contributing to the realization of the Grand Renaissance Dam project which is expected to cost around US$4.7 billion – the IMF, the world Bank and other Western bodies rather prefer to go on with their century-old bias against Ethiopia.

A couple of weeks ago the IMF practically told Ethiopia to stop the Nile Dam Project. On the other hand, IMF now considers  loaning $4.8 billion to Muslim Brotherhood’s Egypt.

I always ask myself – – when international organizations like the World Bank and IMF try to have such widespread influence and control – could countries like Ethiopia exercise any economic independence at all?

How long do they keep making the same old mistakes ignoring all those historical warnings?

As one wonderful Ethiopian observer once said: “Failure by masters of this world to heed to those warnings or, in defiance of them, to continue to engage in participating in the conspiracies of Ethiopia’s sacrilege or destruction in any way by any nations or group of nations, secular or religious, will surely result in committing the perpetrators themselves to another destruction of unprecedented nature and magnitude.”

Continue reading…


Posted in Curiosity, Life | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

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