Water Crisis Looms For Egypt as Ethiopia’s Nile Mega-Dam Nears Completion
Ethiopia’s GERD dam is set to reshape the complex water politics of the Nile Basin – and ‘water stressed’ Egyptians will be the biggest losers
Two of the biggest dam projects in the world – one in Turkey, the other in Ethiopia – are nearing completion. Both are likely to profoundly affect the lives of millions in the Middle East and bring further tensions to already severely water-stressed regions.
In his second report, environment journalist Kieran Cooke reports on the progress of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and its likely consequences for Egypt.
There have been hold ups and reports of large cost overruns but building work on the lavishly titled Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam or GERD, under construction on the Blue Nile in the north of the country since 2011, is nearing completion.
In Cairo, almost 2,500 kilometres to the north, every step in the GERD process – the 6,500 MW hydroelectric dam is one of the world’s largest and the biggest in Africa – is being anxiously watched.
Egypt is facing a water crisis. A rapid increase in demand due to population growth, severe mismanagement of resources and a lack of investment in water infrastructure have led to Egypt being one of the most ‘water stressed’ countries in the world.
For years Egypt has viewed the Nile as its own; at one stage its politicians talked of bombing the GERD in order to preserve what they viewed as their historical right to the river’s waters.
“No one can touch Egypt’s share of Nile water,” said Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in November last year.
“It is a matter of life and death… this is our country and water must be secured for our citizens, from Aswan to Alexandria.”
Yet for all the strong words, Cairo knows the GERD will, at some point in the near future, become a reality. The project, say close observers of the project, marks a profound shift of power in the Nile Basin.
The GERD, for Ethiopia, is central to the country’s development and a symbol of national renewal. The aim is not only to provide much needed power within Ethiopia but also to raise vital export revenues by selling electricity to neighbouring countries.
“Traditionally Egypt – as the power in the region – refused to countenance any upstream dams on the Nile,” said Tobias Von Lossow, a specialist on dams at the Netherlands Institute of International Relations, who has spent years studying the GERD and the complex water politics of the region.
“Then along came Ethiopia and, against all the odds and the doubts of many outsiders, including the Egyptians, the GERD has been built.
“Sudan, the other downstream nation, sees benefits from the GERD and is backing Ethiopia. Egypt has been forced to recognise a new reality – it has to negotiate with Addis Ababa as an equal.”
Electricity shortages
The most immediate concern for Cairo is when the giant reservoir at the GERD site will start being filled, and for how long that process will last.
If the reservoir is filled over a relatively short period – in under five years – it’s calculated that water flows on the Nile through Egypt could drop by as much as 20 percent.
Reduced flows on the Nile would also lead to electricity shortages, with a sharp drop in power generated at the Aswan hydroelectric dam.
Cairo wants a very gradual filling process which will cause less disruption to water flows, taking place over a period of between 10 and 20 years.
Ethiopia on the other hand wants to capitalise on its massive investment and fill the reservoir at the GERD over a much shorter period, enabling it to start generating electricity and begin selling it to other countries.
“The big question is what if the climate changes and there’s a drought during the filling process at the GERD, with water levels in the Nile suddenly dropping substantially,” said Von Lossow. “That could lead to conflict.
“The other issue is that though the GERD is solely for generating electricity, it will regulate water flows on the Blue Nile, enabling more opportunities for the development of agriculture and irrigation across the border in Sudan. That would mean less water flowing into Egypt.”
For the moment, delays and finance problems at the GERD have given Egypt some much needed time to tackle its chronic water woes.
Under the original construction timetable, power was due to be generated from the GERD scheme last year but various factors have been causing delays.
Unwilling to have restrictions placed on it by international lending institutions and banks, Ethiopia has largely self financed the GERD, estimated to be costing $5bn.
Lottery funding
In a nationwide campaign, people were urged to support the project through a national lottery.
Controversially, civil servants were persuaded to use part of their salaries to buy bonds in the scheme. The church also joined in the fundraising.
Then came a sharp downturn in Ethiopia’s economy, with the boom of several years turning to bust. Friendly foreign governments were asked for bail out funds.
The United Arab Emirates supplied $3bn in aid and investments and Saudi Arabia was asked for a year’s supply of fuel, with payment delayed.
China, already a big investor in the country, became a major player in the GERD, with a $1bn loan for power transmission lines.
A new government, headed by prime minister Abiy Ahmed, came to power in April this year.
Abiy, seen as less nationalistic and more pragmatic than his predecessor, has gone out of his way to address Egypt’s fears about the GERD, meeting Sisi in June this year.
In the course of the Cairo meeting, Egypt’s president asked Abiy to swear to Allah “before the Egyptian people” that he would not hurt Egypt’s share of the Nile. Abiy did so.
“So much depends on the personal chemistry between leaders,” said Barnaby Dye, a specialist on dams at the University of Manchester in the UK.
CHRISTIANITY CRACKDOWN: Church ATTACKED by mob – ‘It happens every day’
A CHRISTIAN church in Egypt was forced to close on Sunday after an attack by Islamic extremists.
Christians at the church in Koum Al-Raheb prayed on the street following the attack. The place of worship is one of many that have fallen victim to attacks from Islamic extremists, as they believe the church is not part of the Islamic country. Anti-persecution charity International Christian Concern (ICC) learned about the attack and said the church in Koum Al-Raheb recently opened a new building which serves 2,500 Coptic Christians.
To Islamic cheers of “Allahu Akbar”, literally Allah is the Greatest, groups of Muslim villagers had on Monday 10 December, waged attacks against the houses of the Copts in the village of Kom al-Raheb, pelting them with stones and thumping at doors and windows.
They were livid that the Copts had a day earlier, Sunday 9 December, opened a new church building and celebrated Holy Mass inside. The police arrived and demanded immediate closure of the unlicensed church. The Copts persuaded the police to wait for Mass to conclude before closing the building, which they did and confiscated its keys.
Monday morning, local government employees arrived to the church to cut off water and electricity from the building through removing the electricity and water meters, a standard measure taken against unlicensed buildings. The village Copts gathered around the church to oppose this procedure, and stood praying out loud in the street in front of the four storey building.
According to the village priest who asked for his name to be withheld, the new church would have served the village’s 2500 Copts, since the village includes no church. He said that fundamentalist Muslims had used the local mosque’s microphone to rally the village Muslims against the Copts.
The building is now closed and dependent on the outcome of a reconciliation session meaning local Christians have no access to the church.
A local carpenter named Sobhi told the ICC: “It’s a hard time. We don’t know what we should do. How does the government permit us to open new churches and then force us to close churches? We barely open churches, and the police don’t want to keep us safe.”
A Bible student called Karim told the ICC that Egypt’s constitution states the country’s religion is Islam.
He said: “With this item in the constitution, it gives the idea to radical Muslims that having a church is not part of the Islamic country and that Christians are not part of the Islamic community.”
Isaac Ibrahim from the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights said the attack was a “result of the state’s adoption of clear discriminatory policies and there is no desire to change. What happened is a single pattern, a prayer begins and then demonstration starts”.
Egypt’s former mufti has told Egyptians who can’t afford to eat meat to stop complaining and have a slice of cake instead.
The former Grand Mufti of Egypt, Ali Gomaa, had made remarks suggesting an “effective” solution for Egyptians to face high prices.
As Egyptians have been struggling to earn enough to survive, fake nutritional information from a government supported imam is here to save the day.
Ali Gomaa, the former grand Mufti of Egypt and one of the most prominent imams in the country was defending the latest austerity measures that had hardened the Egyptians daily lives, yet he might have taken it too far…
On a local TV channel, Gomaa was addressing Egyptians who complain the increase in meat prices as they became unable to afford it anymore. He went on to give nutritional advice about the number of needed calories for individuals per day, suggesting substituting meat with cakes, could be the answer!
“You all complain that meat is too expensive and you say what are we going to eat?… If you eat two pieces of cake, then that is it, you won’t need a breakfast or dinner..”
“Ali Gomaa: Eat two pieces of cake if you could not afford meat, “If ye are grateful, I will add more (favours) unto you”. [The last quote is a verse from Quran]
Gomaa went on to explain his point of view: “Allah created us needing 3200 calories per day, and one piece of cake contains 900, which means if I ate two pieces then that will be enough and I won’t need a breakfast or a dinner or whatever else.”
“So, the two pieces of cakes will count a 1800 calories, where are the rest of the 3200 [the needed amount].”
The imam who seems obviously ignorant of any nutritional knowledge, made himself a subject of mockery. Egyptians are already calling for President Abdel Fattah Sisi to resign, following the latest slash in fuel prices and transportation.
The video flooded the Egyptian social media as users went to criticize the imam for justifying any decision taken by the government, as if for the benefit of the people.
Some users described the imam as the Egyptian version of Marie Antoinette, the French Queen who is famous for her phrase: “Then let them eat bread”, when told that the peasants had no bread.
“He is exactly like Marie Antoinette when she said: “If there was not bread for the poor, let them eat cake”, and she ended up executed with her husband.”
Mohamed addressed the imam, sarcastically, asking him what should he do if he had Diabetes.
“But what people who had Diabetes, like me, should eat?”
Ahmed Elkhateeb pretended he was convinced by the imam’s solution, but found meat cheaper if he wanted to get each individual of his family two pieces of cakes on daily basis.
“A family of two individuals will need 20 pieces of cake per day. The average price of each piece is 15 EGP, which amounts to 300 EGP per day. No Sir, I am going to keep it on meat, as it is cheaper.”
In fact, the imam’s humourous attempt to justify his government’s decisions do have a serious side, as many Egyptians can no longer provide enough to look after thier children.
Sisi floated the Egyptian pound in 2016, in addition to crackdowns on many freedoms inside the country.
