Posted by addisethiopia / አዲስ ኢትዮጵያ on September 20, 2021
Who has stood trial, or will stand trial, for the appalling abuses committed against the Uyghurs in China, the Rohingya in Myanmar, the Yazidi in Iraq, or the people of Tigray in Ethiopia? How many mass murderers are walking free in Rwanda, or Syria?
As the 75th anniversary of the Nuremberg trials approaches, Ilse Cohn’s grandson calls for international law to ensure those committing atrocities today face retribution.
The man who ordered the murder of my grandmother never stood trial for the crime. Nor did he stand trial for any of the other 137,000 murders he ordered during five short months in 1941.
I know who he was. His name was Karl Jäger, and he was the commander of a Nazi execution squad in Lithuania, where my 44-year-old grandmother had been deported from her home town in Germany. He is just one of several hundred thousand men and women who were never brought to justice for the part they played in the Nazi holocaust. It’s estimated that up to a million people were directly or indirectly involved in holocaust atrocities, yet only a tiny fraction – perhaps no more than 1% – were ever prosecuted.
Next month marks the 75th anniversary of the end of the Nuremberg International Military Tribunal at which 24 of the most senior Nazi leaders stood trial for war crimes and crimes against humanity. It was the first such trial in history, described at the time as “a shining light for justice”.
A dozen other trials followed – of bankers, lawyers, doctors and others – but according to Mary Fulbrook, professor of German history at University College London, once the Nuremberg process was over, the West Germans prosecuted only 6,000 people for their part in Nazi crimes, of whom some 4,000 were convicted.
Most holocaust perpetrators, such as Jäger, a music-loving SS colonel who ordered the murder of my grandmother and so many others, simply melted back into their community. Jäger, for example, led a quiet, inconspicuous life as a farmer in the German town of Waldkirch, not far from the borders with France and Switzerland, until he was finally arrested in 1959. He hanged himself in his prison cell with a length of electric cable before he could be brought to trial.
So why was Nuremberg, and the handful of other war crimes trials that followed, the exception rather than the rule?
First, because by 1945, large parts of Germany were a smouldering ruin. Millions of people were homeless, so the emphasis was primarily on reconstruction. And who was available to take charge in the “new Germany” if not the very same officials (supposedly de-Nazified) who had served under the Nazis?
Second, because with the start of the cold war and fears of Soviet domination in Europe, both the US and Britain believed that confronting the Soviet threat was more important than hunting down thousands of Nazis. Justice would have to take a back seat.
None of which excuses why, even today, so few perpetrators of the most egregious crimes against humanity are pursued and convicted. It’s true that Radovan Karadžić and Ratko Mladić are both serving long prison sentences for their role in the atrocities of the war in Bosnia. The former Liberian president Charles Taylor is incarcerated after being convicted of what the judge at his trial in The Hague called ‘some of the most heinous and brutal crimes in recorded human history’, and the former president of Chad, Hissène Habré, died of Covid-19 last month while serving a life sentence for human rights abuses.
But, like Nuremberg, they are the exceptions. Who has stood trial, or will stand trial, for the appalling abuses committed against the Uyghurs in China, the Rohingya in Myanmar, the Yazidi in Iraq, or the people of Tigray in Ethiopia? How many mass murderers are walking free in Rwanda, or Syria?
The anniversary of the Nuremberg verdicts offers an opportunity to revisit the debate over war crimes prosecutions, both past and future. It also marks the October release of a major new documentary film called Getting Away With Murder(s) which shines a spotlight on some of the thousands of unpunished Nazi war criminals who escaped after 1945 and lived the rest of their lives undisturbed, some of them in Britain.
Full disclosure: after the film’s director, David Wilkinson, read an article I wrote in the Observer three years ago, he invited me to appear in the film, visiting the site of my grandmother’s death.)
Seventy-five years after Nuremberg, at a time when war crimes are still being committed with shameful alacrity, it is more important than ever to re-emphasise the need to collect evidence when such crimes are committed, and to reaffirm the principle that they should never go unpunished.
History matters. We can learn from past mistakes, which is why in Germany, under the doctrine of “universal jurisdiction”, a Syrian doctor is now on trial charged with crimes against humanity for torturing people in military hospitals. In the Netherlands, another Syrian was sentenced last July to 20 years in prison, accused of being a member of the al-Nusra Front, an al-Qaida affiliate. In Sweden, a former Iranian deputy public prosecutor is currently on trial over the mass execution and torture of prisoners in the 1980s.
👉 To give AID in Africa, not water, school, etc but contraception & abortion
👉 To shrink African population so they don’t use their mineral resources as USA needs them
💭 Raymond de Souza, KM is Brazilian by birth, Catholic by grace and American by choice. He is the Delegate for International Missions for Human Life International and regularly travels all over the world to represent HLI in our mission activities as we refute the Culture of Death and proclaim the Gospel of Life.
He is also the President of the Sacred Heart Institute in the United States; EWTN program Host; Knight of Magistral Grace of the Sovereign Military Order of Malta and Coordinator of the Knights of the Sacred Heart Legion.
Raymond has distinguished himself as an international Catholic Pro-Life activist, apologist, author and broadcaster. Fluent in English, Spanish, French and Portuguese and also having conversational ability in Italian and Afrikaans, he has given over 2,500 talks on pro-life, Catholic apologetics and related topics, in person, on radio and television. His work has assisted religious education programs at parishes, schools, and lay organizations on five continents. He has a weekly column on Catholic apologetics in the national Catholic newspaper, the Wanderer.
Posted by addisethiopia / አዲስ ኢትዮጵያ on September 13, 2021
✞✞✞[Psalm 94:1]✞✞✞
O Lord, God of vengeance, O God of vengeance, shine forth!
✞✞✞[መዝሙረ ዳዊት ምዕራፍ ፺፬፥፩]✞✞✞
እግዚአብሔር የበቀል አምላክ ነው። የበቀል አምላክ ተገለጠ።
An estimated 2.2 million people have been forced from their homes and thousands have been killed in the civil war that broke out in Ethiopia last November when government troops entered Mekelle, capital of the Tigray region. Witnessed by photographer Sergio Ramazzotti, the city was retaken by the Tigray Defence Forces in June, but peace in the region seems a long way off.
The market at Togoga (or Togogwa), a small town of 1,000 people 20 miles (35km) from Mekelle, was hit on 22 June in an airstrike by the Ethiopian air force. The attack left at least 64 dead and wounded almost 200. The Ethiopian army finally allowed ambulances to get to the casualties 29 hours after the attack
The village of Melazat bears the signs of the Ethiopian army’s sudden retreat from Mekelle, 15 miles to the east, on 28 June, as Tigrayan forces were fighting their way into the regional capital.
People collect cereals and cooking oil at a food aid distribution centre in Mekelle. The conflict has isolated the region of Tigray and food supplies are becoming scarce. Humanitarian convoys struggle to bring aid to the thousands of people at risk of starving, with electricity and communications infrastructure badly damaged.
About 8,500 people of the millions displaced by the war have sought shelter in Hadnet secondary school in Mekelle. Food and water are in short supply, and there are countless reports of women and children having been raped by Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers.
On 23 June the Ayder hospital in Mekelle, one of the three still operational in Tigray, was suddenly flooded with wounded civilians after the Ethiopian airstrike on Togoga.
Casualties from the Ethiopian airstrike on Togoga were finally allowed out of the town to be treated by medics in Mekelle.
Staff at Mekelle’s Ayder hospital look on as the casualties arrive from the Togoga airstrike.
Casualties are assessed at Ayder hospital. In the background, doctors treat Genet Tsegay, 12, who had her right arm severely damaged by shrapnel, while her mother, Tsigabu Gebreterisae, 45, is overcome with emotion. Genet’s arm eventually had to be amputated.
Genet Tsegay with her mother, Tsigabu Gebreterisae, in the recovery unit of Ayder hospital. Genet’s brother was killed and she lost her right arm in the Ethiopian forces’ airstrike on Togoga.
On 29 June, and during the following days, Ayder hospital was flooded with wounded Tigrayan militiamen, who had entered the city that morning.
Residents of Mekelle welcome Tigrayan fighters on 29 June, the day after the Ethiopian army suddenly evacuated the regional capital.
People gather on the streets of Mekelle to celebrate the arrival of Tigrayan soldiers. Having approached the city during the night, the Tigray Defence Forces entered the city early on 29 June, a day after the Ethiopian army suddenly left.
Exhausted Tigrayan soldiers in the centre of Mekelle watch a local woman appearing to give thanks for divine intervention.
Local youths celebrate in Mekelle to welcome the liberating Tigray Defence Forces.
More than 6,000 Ethiopian prisoners of war, captured during the last days of the struggle for Mekelle, are marched to the prison between lines of local residents on 2 July.
Captured Ethiopian soldiers are taken through the city to prison by lorry, under the watchful eye of armed guards.
The Ethiopian PoWs are marched past jeering crowds on their way to prison in Mekelle.
On Mekelle’s outskirts, Tigrayan militiamen, many of whom are underage boys and girls, prepare to be deployed on active service.
Two young women with assault rifles and civilian clothes await their orders for deployment to the frontline.
On the outskirts of the city, Tigrayan militias assemble as they await orders.
Hagush Gebremedhin, 50, is one of the nurses at a Ayder hospital clinic for victims of sexual violence. There are many reports of women and children having been raped, sometimes for days, by Ethiopian or Eritrean soldiers.
Desta Gebremedhin, 32, a journalist of Tigrayan origin, was working in Nairobi, Kenya, for the BBC when the conflict broke out. He returned to Ethiopia to join the Tigray Defence Forces
#TogogaMassacre | Abiy Ahmed Repeated What His Oromo Father Mengistu Did on the Very day of June 22
💭 My Note: History repeats itself:
During the past 130 years Oromo armies of four anti-North unEthiopian regimes deployed rape and famine in their genocidal wars in Tigray and Wello regions. Now both these regions are on the brink of famine, again. No coincidence! While there is an exponential growth of the Oromo population, Tigray and Wello have permanently suffered a drastic decrease in their population due to Oromo-lead genocidal wars against them.
🔥 Amhara & Oromos bombing Tigray, Using Rape, Hunger & forced resettlement (Mengistu did it back then, Ahmed will do the same now) as a Weapon against People in Tigray for the past 130 years:-
😈 Menelik ll: Half Oromo + Half Amhara = Oromo (Crypto-Muslim / Man of the flesh)
😈 Haile Selassie: Half Oromo + Half Amhara = Oromo (Crypto-Muslim / Man of the flesh)
😈 Mengistu Hailemariam: Half Oromo + Half Amhara = Oromo (Crypto-Muslim / Man of the flesh)
😈 Abiy Ahmed Ali ´= Half Oromo + Half Amhara = Oromo (Crypto-Muslim / Man of the flesh)
[Galatians 5:19-21]
“Now the deeds of the flesh are evident, which are: immorality, impurity, sensuality, idolatry, sorcery, enmities, strife, jealousy, outbursts of anger, disputes, dissensions, factions, envying, drunkenness, carousing, and things like these, of which I forewarn you, just as I have forewarned you, that those who practice such things will not inherit the kingdom of God.”
🔥 Amhara & Oromos bombing Tigray, Using Rape, Hunger & Forced Resettlement (Mengistu did it back then, Abiy Ahmed is doing the same now) as a Weapon against People in Tigray for the past 130 years:-
The great famine is estimated to have caused 3.5 million deaths. During Emperor Menelik’s Reign, Tigray was split into two regions, one of which he sold to the Italians who later named it Eritrea. Only two months after the death of Emperor Yohaness lV , Menelik signed the Wuchale treaty of 2 May 1889 conceding Eritrea to the Italians. It was not only Eritrea that Menelik gave away, he also had a hand in letting Djibouti be part of the French protectorate when he agreed the border demarcation with the French in 1887. Some huge parts of Tigray were put under Gonder. The Southern part, places like present day Alamata, Kobo etc were put under Wello Amhara administration.
👉 2. Haile Selassie (1892 – 1975)
In 1943, at the request of the Emperor Haile Selassie, the Royal British Airforce bombed two towns – Mekelle and Corbetta. Thousands of defenseless civilians lost their lives as a result of aerial bombardment. It is recorded that ‘on 14th October [1943] 54 bombs dropped in Mekelle, 6th October 14 bombs followed by another 16 bombs on 9thOctober in Hintalo, 7th/9th October 32 bombs in Corbetta’.
Between 2 and 5 million’ people died between 1958 and 1977 as a cumulative result. Haile Selassie, who was emperor at the time, refused to send any significant basic emergency food aid to the province of Tigray,
👉 3. Mengistu Hailemariam (1937 – )
1979 – 1985 + 1987
Due to organized government policies that deliberately multiplied the effects of the famine, around 1.2 million people died from this famine. Mengistu & his Children still alive & ‘well’ while Tigrayans starving again.
👉 4. Abiy Ahmed Ali (1976 – )
2018 – Until today: probably up to 500.000 already dead. 😠😠😠 😢😢😢 Unlike the past famine there is no natural or man-made drought, rather, Abiy simply uses war and hunger as a weapon. Abiy Ahmed sent his kids to America for safety, while bombing & starving Tigrayan kids!
“We have to deal with anyone who is still shooting,” said Getachew Reda, spokesperson for the Tigrayan forces, early this month. “If it takes marching to Addis to silence the guns, we will.” In fact, Tigray’s army has already covered about a third of the distance to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital, since it took back its own provincial capital, Mekelle, in late June.
The fighting has been bloody, for the Ethiopian army is much larger, but the Tigrayan army is more professional and determined. Not only has it liberated all of Tigray except the far west, but it has also seized around one-third of neighbouring Amhara, the province which is the historic core of the Ethiopian empire.
Seven million Tigrayans defeating the army of a country of 110 million people may seem odd, but Ethiopia is a patchwork quilt of different ethnic groups, languages and religions that was held together in the past by a centralised monarchy or dictatorship backed by ruthless military force. Until quite recently, it was Tigray that provided that force.
The Tigrayans earned that job by being the most effective guerrilla force in the long struggle to overthrow the former Communist regime, the Derg. They parlayed that role into an ethnic dictatorship that lasted from 1991 until just a few years ago. But the other ethnic groups then united to instal a new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, who started to dismantle that corrupt autocracy.
He did it, but the Tigrayan military elite withdrew to their own homeland and sulked. It was a well-armed sulk, for almost half the Ethiopian army was based in Tigray and it consisted largely of ethnic Tigrayans. When it became clear that Abiy’s project to destroy the old ethnic pecking order was not negotiable, they rebelled.
This was all pretty inevitable, but then the Ethiopian prime minister decided to invade Tigray and end the problem for good. That was bound to end badly for Ethiopia, because he was making a direct attack on what is practically an African Sparta.
The Tigrayan army pulled out of the province’s cities for a while and by last November Abiy declared the war over. But the Tigrayan leaders were just mobilising their forces, and in June they counter-attacked. The Ethiopian forces broke and ran and most of Tigray was liberated without a fight.
If it had stopped there, some sort of Ethiopian state would have survived, albeit with a semi-detached Tigray, but Abiy then made the serious mistake of resorting to a blockade to starve the Tigrayans out. By now many people in landlocked Tigray are close to famine, but their leaders have countered with an invasion of Amhara province.
They are now within striking distance of the roads that carry 95% of the Ethiopia’s import and export traffic between Addis Ababa and the port of Djibouti. Their success has also emboldened the Oromo Liberation Army, a rebel army seeking autonomy or even independence for Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, to make an alliance with the Tigrayans.
Suddenly, Ethiopia starts to look a lot like former Yugoslavia just before the civil wars of the 1990s split it into six different countries. Yet Abiy is rolling the dice once again, hoping to build a rapidly expanded army that will reconquer Tigray and occupied Amhara. That is unlikely to happen.
Abiy has a few new advantages, like the same sort of armed drones from Turkey that the Azerbaijanis used last year to tear the Armenian army apart in the recent war in the Caucasus. But the Ethiopian air force is in poor condition, as most of its experienced commanders and pilots were Tigrayan.
As for the expanded Ethiopian army, trained and seasoned troops like the Tigrayans will usually defeat almost any number of inexperienced and quickly trained volunteers. So if Abiy doesn’t win, what will happen instead?
If Abiy makes a quick deal with the Tigrayans that ends the blockade and recognises their independence and borders, he may have enough troops and credibility left to suppress the Oromos and other ethnic insurgents who will soon come out into the open. If not, Ethiopia probably splinters, and it’s Yugoslavia all over again.
And what would the Tigrayans do next? Some of them are confident enough to dream of invading Eritrea and taking down President Isaias Afwerki, who sent troops to help Abiy invade Tigray. Afwerki has ruled the country of 5,3 million with an iron hand for three decades, and he is so unpopular that one in 10 Eritreans has fled abroad.
Some of the Tigrayan elite may even be speculating about uniting the two countries. After all, half the Eritrean population speaks the same Tigrinya language and joining the two together would give Tigray access to the sea, which sometimes comes in handy.
(27 Jun 1994) As the Tutsi-dominated rebel Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) intensified its drive to take control of Kigali on Monday (27/6), the Hutu-dominated government army was training more men to combat
“Vor wenigen Monaten schienen die Rebellen in Tigray besiegt, nun drohen sie Addis Abeba die Versorgung abzuschneiden. Wie ist das möglich?
Rekonstruktion einer dramatischen – aber erklärbaren – Wende.“
At the end of May, the man, whom some consider to be one of Africa’s best military strategists, gave an interview. He was sitting in front of a stone wall somewhere in the hinterland of Tigray, talking to a local journalist, and what Tsadkan Gebretinssae said sounded full-bodied.
“We see clearly that their defeat (that of the occupying forces) is approaching. We have created several brigades and cells within a few months, we will use them effectively soon. We need to plug a few more holes, but we’re working on that. “
Tsadkan is a legendary guerrilla leader, he defeated an Ethiopian government thirty years ago. But at the time of the interview, hardly anyone outside the Ethiopian region of Tigray would have bet money for the one announced by Tsadkan to arrive. The Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), of which Tsadkan is the Central Command, had been hiding in the mountains, leading out of the ambush war against the troops who invaded Tigray in November 2020. The TDF seemed strong enough not to be defeated – but too weak to launch an offensive.
But then, at the end of June, the rebels did just that. Within a few days they overran the Ethiopian army in Tigray. They conquered large parts of the region, including the capital Mekele. “Operation Alula” was the offensive. It was one of the most amazing comebacks in recent military history.
What’s more, the TDF has now entered the neighbouring region of Afar, apparently trying to cut off the link between the port in Djibouti and Addis Ababa. It is by far the most important supply route for the Ethiopian capital. If the TDF succeeds, the civil war enters a completely unpredictable phase. There are rumors that the militarily lucky Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed could threaten a coup.
How could it get that far?
Disastrous rumbling attacks
Before the rebels made an amazing comeback in Tigray, they suffered an amazing defeat. In early November 2020, the Ethiopian army began its offensive against Tigray. The conflict had begun since Abiy Ahmed became Prime Minister in spring 2018. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Tigray’s main political force, had previously determined Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades. Abiy put an end to this, removing the Tigray faction from important posts in the military, politics and administration. The TPLF withdrew to its region of origin, soon the signs of war stood – on 4 November 2020 he broke loose.
It was first a one-sided conflict, after less than four weeks he seemed decided. The TPLF troops had rapidly lost ground, on 28 November they also lost the capital Mekele. Prime Minister Abiy declared the offensive, which he had defined as a “criminal action,” to be over.
The Norwegian politologist Kjetil Tronvoll, who is in regular contact with the leadership of the rebels, gives two reasons for the fact that the fight in November was so one-sided: firstly, the Tigrayan troops were not prepared to be attacked by three fronts; In addition to the Ethiopian army, the Eritrean army advanced from the north as well as militias of the neighbouring region Amhara from the south. Secondly, drone strikes that the United Arab Emirates allied with Ethiopia flew from a base in Eritrea would have had a devastating effect. The attacks destroyed Tigrayan tanks and heavy war equipment and killed several TPLF leaders.
The accusation that the UAE would support the campaign in Tigray with drones had been expressed early by TPLF representatives – experts believe this is possible, it is not documented.
In December and January, the rebels went for survival. The Ethiopian government maintained a “Most Wanted” list of 167 TPLF leaders. Within two weeks of January alone, the Ethiopian army captured or killed 47 of the wanted. The most prominent victim was Seyoum Mesfin, a 71-year-old former foreign minister who was shot dead by Ethiopian soldiers.
It seemed a matter of time before the list would be cut off. But it came differently.
The return of the almost 70-year-old general
For those who had saved themselves in the mountains of Tigrays were not helpless politicians, but some of the most experienced military of Ethiopia. The core of the TPLF leadership was a group of men who had fought a guerrilla war against the Ethiopian central state forty years ago. Debretsion Gebremichael, for example, the TPLF chairman, had joined the TPLF in the 1970s, when it was a rebel organization fighting the communist Derg regime.
Or Tsadkan Gebretinssae, the man who announced the defeat of the Ethiopian army in the interview. According to the BBC, he had joined the TPLF in 1976, when it only numbered a few hundred fighters. He became one of their most important commanders and led the 1991 attack on Addis Ababa, which put an end to the Derg regime. At that time the TPLF had become an army with over 100,000 fighters.
After the TPLF took power, Tsadkan was Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Army and led it into a war with Eritrea in 1998, which cost nearly 80,000 lives. Later the general was dismissed because he had resigned with the then TPLF Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. In 2019, he participated in negotiations between the TPLF and Prime Minister Abiy. They were unsuccessful – and after the war broke loose, Tsadkan joined the rebels. He later said, “I had the choice to surrender to either foreign forces or those of Abiy or to go into resistance. I chose the latter. ” Tsadkan again has a key military role, he is almost 70 years old.
Besides Debretsion, Tsadkan and the other former guerrilla fighters, many more capable military forces found themselves in the mountains of Tigray; Tadesse Worede, for example, the commander-in-chief of the Tigrayan troops, had once led UN peacekeepers in Sudan. In addition, there were officers at all hierarchy levels who had either been expelled from the Ethiopian army or deserted.
One of the most militarized regions in the world
These experienced military forces now sent themselves to organize the resistance in Tigray. According to TPLF expert Kjetil Tronvoll, they received indirect support from the American government: after Joe Biden took office, the Americans pressured the UAE to end drone strikes in Yemen. These were flown from the same base in Eritrea, from which the attacks against the TPLF allegedly also originated. According to media reports, the Emirates largely shut down the base in February.
The absence of drone strikes gave air to the Tigrayan rebels. At the same time, tens of thousands of volunteers flocked to newly established training camps. Mass recruitment was a consequence of the humanitarian drama that has been taking place in Tigray since November. The Eritrean, Ethiopian and Amharic troops are blamed for numerous war crimes. Several thousand civilians were killed in massacres, and hundreds of women were raped. American Foreign Minister Antony Blinken, among others, spoke of “ethnic cleansing” in connection with the events in Tigray.
Tronvoll says that many Tigrayans have seen no other way out than to go to the mountains and fight: “They said to themselves: If we stay home, they come, rape our sisters, kill our mothers or us. If we want to survive, we have no choice but to join the rebels. “
In training camps new recruits were trained by experienced military personnel. There was no lack of weapons, the Tigray on the fragile border with Eritrea is one of the most militarized regions in the world. According to Tronvoll, many of the new fighters brought weapons sufficient for guerrilla combat; Kalashnikov rifles, for example.
The Tigray Defense Forces, consisting not only of members of the TPLF, but also members of other parties, deserters and militias and tens of thousands of people who were civilians until recently, grew. Tsadkan Gebretinssae said in one of his interviews: “Combining these two elements – experienced and capable commanders and a society with a military tradition – takes only a short time to reorganize and take control.”
That seems to have actually happened.
The destroyed command structure of the Ethiopian army
In June, the TDF commanders considered themselves strong enough to go on the offensive. Until then, they had carried out strategic attacks, which were often just needle stitches. But in these, for example, the TDF captured heavy war equipment that would soon be useful to them.
Finally, on June 18, the TDF launched Operation Alula, named after a Tigrayan general from the 19 century. The offensive was of resounding success; the Ethiopian army, which had mainly occupied cities and main axes of traffic, was surrounded in many places and cut off from supplies. Ten days after the offensive began, the TDF captured the capital Mekele. Images and videos from the city showed fighters parading through the city in a triumphal procession. The inhabitants celebrated the rebels, they waved Tigray flags, fireworks popped.
The TDF’s stormy offensive would not have been so successful if the Ethiopian army had resisted more severely. But the army is weakened because it has suffered a spate of Tigrayan officers in recent years – they had formed the backbone of the Ethiopian army after 1991. Prime Minister Abiy arrested thousands of Tigrayan officers for allegedly not trusting them. According to Kjetil Tronvoll, the command structure of the army was practically destroyed – meanwhile, old commanders from the time of the Derg regime again assume a key role. They face their former opponents of the TPLF, to whom they are already inferior.
The TDF are no longer waging a guerrilla war, they are continuing their offensive. They also want to free the north and the west of Tigray. In addition, they have penetrated the neighbouring regions of Amhara and Afar in order to create a buffer zone.
“The TDF are currently running as fast as they can,” says Kjetil Tronvoll. On the one hand, they wanted to prevent the Ethiopian army from reestablishing itself. On the other hand, they tried to open access to humanitarian aid – according to the UN, more than five million people in Tigray are in urgent need of aid. The only way to get help is through Afar.
The main supply route for Addis Ababa also runs through Afar. Around 95 percent of Ethiopia’s import volume enters the country from the port of Djibouti via Afar, including fuel and food. In recent days, the signs have increased that the TDF could try to cut the route from Djibouti to Addis. It would be a disaster for Prime Minister Abiy’s government.
For the ancient Tigrayan guerrillas and their highly motivated army, perhaps the moment when, thanks to them, the leaf would have finally turned in the civil war.
