Tigray: Sparta in Africa | ትግራይ፤ የአፍሪቃ ስፓርታ የጀግኖች ምድር

From The Zimbabwe Independent September 3, 2021

BY GWYNNE DYER

🔥 10 Million vs. 100 Million | ፲/አሥር ሚሊየን በ ፻/መቶ ሚሊየን

ይህ የዘር ማጥፋት ጦርነት በጭራሽ መከሰት አልነበረትም! በተለይ ኦሮሞ ያልሆነው “ኢትዮጵያዊ” ለዚህ ፋሺስታዊ አገዛዝ በፍጹም ድጋፍ መስጠት አልነበረበትም። በተለይ “ተዋሕዶ ክርስቲያኖች ነን” የሚሉት “ኢትዮጵያውያን” ባለፈው ጥቅምት ፳፬/ ፪ሺ፲፫ ዓ.ም ልክ ጦርነቱ ሲቀሰቀስ ከጽዮናውያን ጎን በመቆም ይህን አረመኔ የኦሮሞ አገዛዝ መዋጋት ነበረባቸው። እስኪ ይታየን ያኔ በተለይ፤ “አማራ ነን” የሚሉት ወገኖች ከጽዮናውያን ጋር ተሰልፈው መዋጋት ባይኖርባቸው እንኳን (ለነገሩም ግዴታቸውም ነበር)ግን “ጦርነቱን አንደግፍም፣ አንዘምትም፣ በትግራይ ሕዝብ ላይ እየተሠራ ያለው ግፍ ይቁም!” በማለት ድምጻቸውን ቢያሰሙ ኖሮ ዛሬ ምን ያህል ትልቅ ሕዝብ ሆነው በታዩ፣ “ታሪክ የማይረሳው ተግባር ፈጽመዋል” በተባሉ። እነ ጄነራሎች አሳምነው፣ ሰዓረ፣ ዶ/ር አምባቻው የተገደሉት እኮ በትግራይ ላይ ለሚከፈተው ጦርነት ፈቃደኝነታቸውን ባለማሳየታቸው ነው። በባሕር ዳር አማርኛ ተናጋሪ የሆኖ ኦሮሞዎች ሥልጣኑን የተቆጣጠሩት እኮ መከላከያ ሚንስትር ለማ መገርሳ እና ግራኝ አብዮት አህመድ አሊ በትግራይ ላይ የዘር ማጥፋት ተልዕኮ ስላላቸው ነበር። ምዕራብ ትግራይን በአማራ ስም ከኢሳያስ አፈወርቂ ጋር ተመሳጥረው የተቆጣጠሩት እኮ ላለፉት አሥር ዓመታት፤ መለስ ዜናዊን ከገደሉት በኋላ፤ ለዚህ ሰይጣናዊ ተልዕኮ ሲዘጋጁ የነበሩት አማርኛ ተናጋሪ ኦሮሞዎች ናቸው። የማኅበረ ደጎ ገደል ጫፍ እልቂት የተሳተፉትና ቪዲዮ እየቀረሱ በአማርኛ ሲሳለቁ የነበሩት አረመኔ ወታደሮች እኮ አማርኛ ተናጋሪ ኦሮሞዎች ነበሩ። ሌሎቹ የዕልቂት ቀጠናዎች ሁሉ በደንብ መጣራት ይኖርባቸዋል። እግዚአብሔር የመዘገበውና እኛ ገና ያለወቅናው የኦሮሞዎች ብዙ ጉድ በግልጽ ይወጣል! ለማ መገርሳ እና አብዮት አህመድ አሊ ላለፉት አሥር ዓመታት ለዚህ ዲያብሎሳዊ ተልዕኮዋቸው በኦሮሚያ እና በኤርትራ የአማርኛ እና ትግርኛ ቋንቋዎች ትምህርት እየሰጡ የዋቄዮ–አላህ አረበኞቻቸውን በማዘጋጀት ላይ ነበሩ፤ ትግራዋዩን ከኤርትራ ተጋሩ ጋር፣ አማራውን ከተጋሩ አባልቶ ለሺህ ዓመታት የሚቆይ ጥላቻ ለመዝራት። ቁራ! ቁራ! ቁራ!

አዎ! በ ዘ–ብሔረ አክሱም ጽዮናውያን ላይ የተነሱት መቶ ሚሊየን “ኢትይጵያውያን” ብሎም ኤዶማውያኑ እና እስማኤላውያኑ ረዳቶቻቸው ናቸው። የትግራይን ሕብዝ እንደ ጥንታውያኑ ስፓርታ ጠንካራና ጀግና ያደረጋቸው የመንፈሳዊ ማንነታቸውና ምንነታቸው ነው። ጽዮናውያኑን ዛሬና ለሺህ ዓመታት ያህል ድል እንዲቀዳጁና ፈተናውን ሁሉ እየተጋፈጡ ማንነታቸውንና ምንነታቸውን እስከ ዛሬ ድረስ ጠብቀው እንዲኖር የረዷቸው እግዚአብሔርና ቅዱሳኑ እንጂ ኢትዮጵያ ዘ–ስጋ፣ የውጭ ኃይሎች፣ ባዕዳውያን እምነቶች እና ርዕዮተዓለሞች፣ የካርል ማርክስ፣ አልበርት አይንሽታይን፣ ሌኒን ስታሊን ተረተረቶች አይደለም፣ የሉሲፈር አምስት ፈርጥ ኮከብ ያረፈበት ባለ ሁለት ቀለሙ ባንዲራም አይደለም። ይህን አጠንቅቀው በማወቅ እግዚአብሔርንና ቅዱሳኑን እስካልረሱ ድረስ ድሉ ሁሌ የእነርሱ ነው።

አሁን ግን ላለፉት ሦስት ዓመታት፣ ባተለይ ባለፉት አሥር ወራት ጽዮናውያንን አሳድደው፣ አስረበውና ጨፍጭፈው ከምድረ ገጽ ለማጥፋት የተነሳሱትን በተለይ በኦሮሞ እና አማራ ክልል የሚኖሩ ነዋሪዎች ለአንዴና ለመጨረሻ ጊዜ ማንበርከክ ግድ ይሆንባቸዋል። እስኪ እናስበው፤ አንድን ወገን በረሃብ ፈጅቶ ለመጨረስ ድንበር መዝጋት፣ እርዳታ መከልከል፣ ሰብል ማውደም፣ ምግብ መመረዝ… ምን ያህል አረመኔዎች ብሆኑ ነው? ዓለም እኮ በመገረም እየታዘባቸው ነው፤ አረመኔውና እባቡ ግራኝ አብዮት አህመድ አሊ፤ “ለኦሮሞ ሕዝቤ ስል ኢትዮጵያን ማጥፋት አለበኝ፣ ኦሮሞ እስኪነቃ ነው እንጂ፣ እስኪነሳ ነው እንጂ ሲነሳ ሚዳቋ አትበላንም፤ እኛ ዝሆን ነን፤ እንሰብራለን፤ እንበላለን፤ እንገዛለን፣ ሃሳብ አለን፤ ድርጅት አለን፤ ከአለም ጋር ግንኙነት አለን።” በማለት ታይተው ተሰምተው የማያቁ ወንጀሎችን እና ግፎችን በመስራት ላይ ነው። የኢትዮጵያን ስም ለማጠለሸትና ለማጥፋት፣ ሕዝቡንም በመላው ዓለም እንዲዋረድ፤ በረሃብ ብቻ ሳይሆን በጭካኔ እና አረመኔነት እንዲታወቅ ለማድረግ እየሠራ ነው። የኦርሞ እና የአማራ ሕዝብ ይህን ለአለፉት ሦስት ዓመታት በተለይ ላለፉት አሥር ወራት እያየና እየሰማ እንኳን ከትግራይ ሕዝብ ጎን ተሰልፎ ሊዋጋ፤ ከአረመኔው ግራኝ እና ኦሮሞ አገዛዙ ጎን ቆሞና ከታሪካዊ እስማኤላውያን ጠላቶች ጋር አብሮ፤ “ያዘው! በለው! ጨፍጭፈው!” ሲል ነበር። ዛሬም እንኳን ባለፉት አሥር ወራት ከሠሯቸውት ግልጽ የሆኑ ከባድ ስህተቶችና ኃጢዓቶች ታርመውና ንሰሐ በመግባት ተመልሰው፤ “ጦርነቱ ይቁም!” ለማለት እንኳ ፈቃደኞች አይደሉም። እስኪ “የኦሮሞ ተዋጊዎች” የተባሉት ግን የግራኝ Plan B ተጠባባቂ አርበኞች የሆኑት(OLA)ባለፉት ቀናት በኦሮሚያ ሲዖል ገብተው በመገጣጠም ላይ ያሉትን የክርስቶስ ተቃዋሚ ቱርክ ድሮኖችን ያወድሟቸው እንደሆነ እናያለን። በጭራሽ አያደርጉትም፤ ምክኒያቱም ድሮኖቹ የሰሜኑን ተዋሕዶ ክርስቲያን ሕዝብ መጨፍጨፊያ የዲያብሎስ ወፎች ናቸውና ነው።

አሁን ጽዮናውያን፤ አማራ እና ኦሮሞ ከተባሉት ክልሎች ለእርዳታ ተብለው የተከማቹትን ምግቦችና መድኃኒቶች ብቻ ሳይሆን የጤፍ፣ የስንዴ፣ የገብስ እህሎችን እና ጥራጥሬዎችን ወደ ትግራይ መውሰድ ይኖርባቸዋል። ኦሮሞዎች እና አማራዎች “ወገን” የሚሉትን አንድን ክርስቲያን ሕዝብ አስርቦ ለመጨረስ ባለፉት ሦስት ዓመታት ያለምንም ተቃውሞ ሰርተዋልና ሁሉም ተፈርዶባቸዋል። ከንቱው የኤዶምውያኑ እና እስማኤላውያኑ ዓለም በትግራይ ሕዝብ ላይ የተሠራውን ወንጀል ሁሉ ባጭር ጊዜ ረስቶ፤ “ሰረቁ…ቅብርጥሴ” በማለት መቀበጣጠር ይችላል፤ ግን ዓለም የጽዮናውያን ወዳጅ አልነበረም፣ አይደለም ወደፊትም አይሆንም እና ምግብ ከኦሮሚያ እና አማራ ክልሎች ወደ ትግራይ መወሰድ አለባቸው! እድኒያውም ለመጭዎቹ ሺህ ዓመታት ትግራይ የመንፈሳዊ ማዕከል ብቻ ነው መሆን ያለባት፣ እርሻዎቹን እና የኢንዱስትሪ ማዕከላቱን በተቀሩት የአክሱም ደቡብ ግዛቶች ብቻ ማድረግ ተገቢ ነው። ኦሮሞዎች እና አማራዎች የሺህ ዓመት እዳ ነው በትግራይ ያከማቹት፤ ስለዚህ ለሺህ ዓመታት እየገበሩ መኖር አለዚያ ደግሞ ከአክሱማውያን ግዛት መጠረግ አለባቸው። ታላቁ ክርስቲያን ንጉሥ አፄ ዮሐንስ ይህን ነበር የሚናገሩት!

💭 The Greatest African Warrior to Ever Live | Ethiopia’s Memnon the Demi-God

💭 ዳግማዊ የሌለው ታላቁ የአፍሪካ ተዋጊ | ኢትዮጵያዊው ሜምኖን የዴሚ አምላክ

አዎ! ዛሬ ታላቅነታችን ከስሞ የጠፋው ከደቡብ ግብጽ እስከ ታንዛኒያ ድረስ የሚዘልቀውን እግዚአብሔር ለኢትዮጵያውያን የሰጠነንን ግዛት አስመልሰን በኢየሱስ ክርስቶስ ለማምጣት ባለመነሳሳታችን ነው። በተቃራኒው፤ በ”ዲሞክራሲ” እና “እኩልነት” ተረተረት የቀረችዋንም ቅድስት ምድራችን ለእስማኤላውያን እና ኤዶማውያን ቀስበቀስ እያስክረከብን አገራችንን ልናጣ ደርሰናል። ዛሬም ከዚህ ውርደት ልንድን የምንችለው በጽዮናውያን ዘላቂ ታማኝነት ብቻና ብቻ ነው!

“We have to deal with anyone who is still shooting,” said Getachew Reda, spokesperson for the Tigrayan forces, early this month. “If it takes marching to Addis to silence the guns, we will.” In fact, Tigray’s army has already covered about a third of the distance to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital, since it took back its own provincial capital, Mekelle, in late June.

The fighting has been bloody, for the Ethiopian army is much larger, but the Tigrayan army is more professional and determined. Not only has it liberated all of Tigray except the far west, but it has also seized around one-third of neighbouring Amhara, the province which is the historic core of the Ethiopian empire.

Seven million Tigrayans defeating the army of a country of 110 million people may seem odd, but Ethiopia is a patchwork quilt of different ethnic groups, languages and religions that was held together in the past by a centralised monarchy or dictatorship backed by ruthless military force. Until quite recently, it was Tigray that provided that force.

The Tigrayans earned that job by being the most effective guerrilla force in the long struggle to overthrow the former Communist regime, the Derg. They parlayed that role into an ethnic dictatorship that lasted from 1991 until just a few years ago. But the other ethnic groups then united to instal a new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, who started to dismantle that corrupt autocracy.

He did it, but the Tigrayan military elite withdrew to their own homeland and sulked. It was a well-armed sulk, for almost half the Ethiopian army was based in Tigray and it consisted largely of ethnic Tigrayans. When it became clear that Abiy’s project to destroy the old ethnic pecking order was not negotiable, they rebelled.

This was all pretty inevitable, but then the Ethiopian prime minister decided to invade Tigray and end the problem for good. That was bound to end badly for Ethiopia, because he was making a direct attack on what is practically an African Sparta.

The Tigrayan army pulled out of the province’s cities for a while and by last November Abiy declared the war over. But the Tigrayan leaders were just mobilising their forces, and in June they counter-attacked. The Ethiopian forces broke and ran and most of Tigray was liberated without a fight.

If it had stopped there, some sort of Ethiopian state would have survived, albeit with a semi-detached Tigray, but Abiy then made the serious mistake of resorting to a blockade to starve the Tigrayans out. By now many people in landlocked Tigray are close to famine, but their leaders have countered with an invasion of Amhara province.

They are now within striking distance of the roads that carry 95% of the Ethiopia’s import and export traffic between Addis Ababa and the port of Djibouti. Their success has also emboldened the Oromo Liberation Army, a rebel army seeking autonomy or even independence for Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, to make an alliance with the Tigrayans.

Suddenly, Ethiopia starts to look a lot like former Yugoslavia just before the civil wars of the 1990s split it into six different countries. Yet Abiy is rolling the dice once again, hoping to build a rapidly expanded army that will reconquer Tigray and occupied Amhara. That is unlikely to happen.

Abiy has a few new advantages, like the same sort of armed drones from Turkey that the Azerbaijanis used last year to tear the Armenian army apart in the recent war in the Caucasus. But the Ethiopian air force is in poor condition, as most of its experienced commanders and pilots were Tigrayan.

As for the expanded Ethiopian army, trained and seasoned troops like the Tigrayans will usually defeat almost any number of inexperienced and quickly trained volunteers. So if Abiy doesn’t win, what will happen instead?

If Abiy makes a quick deal with the Tigrayans that ends the blockade and recognises their independence and borders, he may have enough troops and credibility left to suppress the Oromos and other ethnic insurgents who will soon come out into the open. If not, Ethiopia probably splinters, and it’s Yugoslavia all over again.

And what would the Tigrayans do next? Some of them are confident enough to dream of invading Eritrea and taking down President Isaias Afwerki, who sent troops to help Abiy invade Tigray. Afwerki has ruled the country of 5,3 million with an iron hand for three decades, and he is so unpopular that one in 10 Eritreans has fled abroad.

Some of the Tigrayan elite may even be speculating about uniting the two countries. After all, half the Eritrean population speaks the same Tigrinya language and joining the two together would give Tigray access to the sea, which sometimes comes in handy.

Source

__________________________________

Ethiopia | TDF Made One of The Most Amazing Comebacks in Recent Military History

💭 ኢትዮጵያ | የትግራይ መከላከያ ኃይል በቅርብ ወታደራዊ ታሪክ ውስጥ እጅግ አስደናቂ ከሆኑት መመለሻዎች መካከል አንዱን አደረገ

👉 ከጥቂት ወራቶች በፊት ትግራይ ውስጥ የተሸነፉ የሚመስሉት አርበኞች አሁን የአዲስ አበባን አቅርቦት ለመዝጋት እየዛቱ ነው ፡፡ ያ እንዴት ይቻላል?

💭 A Few Months Ago The Rebels Seemed Defeated in Tigray, Now They Are Threatening to Cut Off Addis Ababa’s Supply. How is That Possible?

👉 Reconstruction of a dramatic – but explainable – turnaround.

They made one of the most amazing comebacks in recent military history.

Courtesy: Neue Züricher Zeitung (NZZ) (Translated from the German)

👉 ከታዋቂው የስዊዘርላንድ “አዲስ የዙሪክ ጋዜጣ” የተወሰደ፤

“Vor wenigen Monaten schienen die Rebellen in Tigray besiegt, nun drohen sie Addis Abeba die Versorgung abzuschneiden. Wie ist das möglich?

Rekonstruktion einer dramatischen – aber erklärbaren – Wende.“

At the end of May, the man, whom some consider to be one of Africa’s best military strategists, gave an interview. He was sitting in front of a stone wall somewhere in the hinterland of Tigray, talking to a local journalist, and what Tsadkan Gebretinssae said sounded full-bodied.

“We see clearly that their defeat (that of the occupying forces) is approaching. We have created several brigades and cells within a few months, we will use them effectively soon. We need to plug a few more holes, but we’re working on that. “

Tsadkan is a legendary guerrilla leader, he defeated an Ethiopian government thirty years ago. But at the time of the interview, hardly anyone outside the Ethiopian region of Tigray would have bet money for the one announced by Tsadkan to arrive. The Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), of which Tsadkan is the Central Command, had been hiding in the mountains, leading out of the ambush war against the troops who invaded Tigray in November 2020. The TDF seemed strong enough not to be defeated – but too weak to launch an offensive.

But then, at the end of June, the rebels did just that. Within a few days they overran the Ethiopian army in Tigray. They conquered large parts of the region, including the capital Mekele. “Operation Alula” was the offensive. It was one of the most amazing comebacks in recent military history.

What’s more, the TDF has now entered the neighbouring region of Afar, apparently trying to cut off the link between the port in Djibouti and Addis Ababa. It is by far the most important supply route for the Ethiopian capital. If the TDF succeeds, the civil war enters a completely unpredictable phase. There are rumors that the militarily lucky Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed could threaten a coup.

How could it get that far?

Disastrous rumbling attacks

Before the rebels made an amazing comeback in Tigray, they suffered an amazing defeat. In early November 2020, the Ethiopian army began its offensive against Tigray. The conflict had begun since Abiy Ahmed became Prime Minister in spring 2018. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Tigray’s main political force, had previously determined Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades. Abiy put an end to this, removing the Tigray faction from important posts in the military, politics and administration. The TPLF withdrew to its region of origin, soon the signs of war stood – on 4 November 2020 he broke loose.

It was first a one-sided conflict, after less than four weeks he seemed decided. The TPLF troops had rapidly lost ground, on 28 November they also lost the capital Mekele. Prime Minister Abiy declared the offensive, which he had defined as a “criminal action,” to be over.

The Norwegian politologist Kjetil Tronvoll, who is in regular contact with the leadership of the rebels, gives two reasons for the fact that the fight in November was so one-sided: firstly, the Tigrayan troops were not prepared to be attacked by three fronts; In addition to the Ethiopian army, the Eritrean army advanced from the north as well as militias of the neighbouring region Amhara from the south. Secondly, drone strikes that the United Arab Emirates allied with Ethiopia flew from a base in Eritrea would have had a devastating effect. The attacks destroyed Tigrayan tanks and heavy war equipment and killed several TPLF leaders.

The accusation that the UAE would support the campaign in Tigray with drones had been expressed early by TPLF representatives – experts believe this is possible, it is not documented.

In December and January, the rebels went for survival. The Ethiopian government maintained a “Most Wanted” list of 167 TPLF leaders. Within two weeks of January alone, the Ethiopian army captured or killed 47 of the wanted. The most prominent victim was Seyoum Mesfin, a 71-year-old former foreign minister who was shot dead by Ethiopian soldiers.

It seemed a matter of time before the list would be cut off. But it came differently.

The return of the almost 70-year-old general

For those who had saved themselves in the mountains of Tigrays were not helpless politicians, but some of the most experienced military of Ethiopia. The core of the TPLF leadership was a group of men who had fought a guerrilla war against the Ethiopian central state forty years ago. Debretsion Gebremichael, for example, the TPLF chairman, had joined the TPLF in the 1970s, when it was a rebel organization fighting the communist Derg regime.

Or Tsadkan Gebretinssae, the man who announced the defeat of the Ethiopian army in the interview. According to the BBC, he had joined the TPLF in 1976, when it only numbered a few hundred fighters. He became one of their most important commanders and led the 1991 attack on Addis Ababa, which put an end to the Derg regime. At that time the TPLF had become an army with over 100,000 fighters.

After the TPLF took power, Tsadkan was Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Army and led it into a war with Eritrea in 1998, which cost nearly 80,000 lives. Later the general was dismissed because he had resigned with the then TPLF Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. In 2019, he participated in negotiations between the TPLF and Prime Minister Abiy. They were unsuccessful – and after the war broke loose, Tsadkan joined the rebels. He later said, “I had the choice to surrender to either foreign forces or those of Abiy or to go into resistance. I chose the latter. ” Tsadkan again has a key military role, he is almost 70 years old.

Besides Debretsion, Tsadkan and the other former guerrilla fighters, many more capable military forces found themselves in the mountains of Tigray; Tadesse Worede, for example, the commander-in-chief of the Tigrayan troops, had once led UN peacekeepers in Sudan. In addition, there were officers at all hierarchy levels who had either been expelled from the Ethiopian army or deserted.

One of the most militarized regions in the world

These experienced military forces now sent themselves to organize the resistance in Tigray. According to TPLF expert Kjetil Tronvoll, they received indirect support from the American government: after Joe Biden took office, the Americans pressured the UAE to end drone strikes in Yemen. These were flown from the same base in Eritrea, from which the attacks against the TPLF allegedly also originated. According to media reports, the Emirates largely shut down the base in February.

The absence of drone strikes gave air to the Tigrayan rebels. At the same time, tens of thousands of volunteers flocked to newly established training camps. Mass recruitment was a consequence of the humanitarian drama that has been taking place in Tigray since November. The Eritrean, Ethiopian and Amharic troops are blamed for numerous war crimes. Several thousand civilians were killed in massacres, and hundreds of women were raped. American Foreign Minister Antony Blinken, among others, spoke of “ethnic cleansing” in connection with the events in Tigray.

Tronvoll says that many Tigrayans have seen no other way out than to go to the mountains and fight: “They said to themselves: If we stay home, they come, rape our sisters, kill our mothers or us. If we want to survive, we have no choice but to join the rebels. “

In training camps new recruits were trained by experienced military personnel. There was no lack of weapons, the Tigray on the fragile border with Eritrea is one of the most militarized regions in the world. According to Tronvoll, many of the new fighters brought weapons sufficient for guerrilla combat; Kalashnikov rifles, for example.

The Tigray Defense Forces, consisting not only of members of the TPLF, but also members of other parties, deserters and militias and tens of thousands of people who were civilians until recently, grew. Tsadkan Gebretinssae said in one of his interviews: “Combining these two elements – experienced and capable commanders and a society with a military tradition – takes only a short time to reorganize and take control.”

That seems to have actually happened.

The destroyed command structure of the Ethiopian army

In June, the TDF commanders considered themselves strong enough to go on the offensive. Until then, they had carried out strategic attacks, which were often just needle stitches. But in these, for example, the TDF captured heavy war equipment that would soon be useful to them.

Finally, on June 18, the TDF launched Operation Alula, named after a Tigrayan general from the 19 century. The offensive was of resounding success; the Ethiopian army, which had mainly occupied cities and main axes of traffic, was surrounded in many places and cut off from supplies. Ten days after the offensive began, the TDF captured the capital Mekele. Images and videos from the city showed fighters parading through the city in a triumphal procession. The inhabitants celebrated the rebels, they waved Tigray flags, fireworks popped.

The TDF’s stormy offensive would not have been so successful if the Ethiopian army had resisted more severely. But the army is weakened because it has suffered a spate of Tigrayan officers in recent years – they had formed the backbone of the Ethiopian army after 1991. Prime Minister Abiy arrested thousands of Tigrayan officers for allegedly not trusting them. According to Kjetil Tronvoll, the command structure of the army was practically destroyed – meanwhile, old commanders from the time of the Derg regime again assume a key role. They face their former opponents of the TPLF, to whom they are already inferior.

The TDF are no longer waging a guerrilla war, they are continuing their offensive. They also want to free the north and the west of Tigray. In addition, they have penetrated the neighbouring regions of Amhara and Afar in order to create a buffer zone.

“The TDF are currently running as fast as they can,” says Kjetil Tronvoll. On the one hand, they wanted to prevent the Ethiopian army from reestablishing itself. On the other hand, they tried to open access to humanitarian aid – according to the UN, more than five million people in Tigray are in urgent need of aid. The only way to get help is through Afar.

The main supply route for Addis Ababa also runs through Afar. Around 95 percent of Ethiopia’s import volume enters the country from the port of Djibouti via Afar, including fuel and food. In recent days, the signs have increased that the TDF could try to cut the route from Djibouti to Addis. It would be a disaster for Prime Minister Abiy’s government.

For the ancient Tigrayan guerrillas and their highly motivated army, perhaps the moment when, thanks to them, the leaf would have finally turned in the civil war.

Source

______________________________________